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The first quarter of 2024 showed a bullish trend in global stock markets, driven by a resilient US economy and growing interest in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Despite investor optimism, the anticipated pace of interest rate cuts was slower than expected, negatively impacting market dynamics and bond performance. US markets experienced robust growth, Eurozone markets saw significant gains, and the UK market rebounded despite a technical recession. Japan's market rallied, and Emerging Markets showed mixed performances. Global bonds faced headwinds due to inflation expectations and cautious central bank policies.

The financial markets in February 2024 were marked by dynamic interactions among asset classes, driven by interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators. Equities remained robust, buoyed by positive economic data and earnings reports, while global bonds underperformed due to changing interest rate forecasts. Currency markets experienced volatility amid evolving interest rate landscapes, and interest rate expectations were central to market movements. Commodities exhibited mixed trends, with oil prices supported by Middle East tensions and gold demand remaining firm. Looking ahead, central bank policies and geopolitical dynamics will continue to shape financial markets.

The financial markets in January 2024 reflect optimism driven by expectations of aggressive monetary easing, leading to rallies in equities and bonds. Currency markets experience volatility amidst shifting interest rates and geopolitical risks. Expectations for lower interest rates aim to stimulate economic growth, but the extent of rate cuts remains uncertain. Geopolitical tensions influence commodity prices and market sentiment, demanding vigilance and adaptability from investors.

December 2023 witnessed a dynamic financial landscape with diverse movements in equities, bonds, currencies, interest rates, and commodities. U.S. equities, especially the S&P 500, displayed resilience, driven by eased trade tensions and positive earnings. The bond market, notably U.S. Treasuries, experienced a rally, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment. Currencies were volatile, influenced by central bank policies and global events. Interest rates, guided by the Federal Reserve, underwent adjustments, indicating a market expectation of a slowdown in rate hikes. Commodities had mixed performance tied to global economic health and trade policies. The month concluded with cautious optimism, setting the stage for a dynamic financial landscape in 2024.

In November 2023, a critical economic juncture unfolded with a 5.2% year-on-year rise in 3Q GDP, bringing a mix of optimism and caution. Speculations about a potential Federal Reserve policy shift led to a broad-based rally across asset classes. Despite a remarkable period, tempered expectations for continued gains exist, with positive outlooks for 2024. The belief that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle has ended fuels speculation about rate reductions starting in March 2024. Positive market correlations in November resulted in one of the best monthly portfolio performances, with expectations for enhanced performance in 2024.

In October, global financial markets experienced a retrenchment due to persistent U.S. interest rate concerns amid inflationary pressures and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Bond markets saw a downturn with surging yields, while gold became a refuge for risk-averse investors. U.S. stock markets declined as expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy recalibrated, influenced by sustained inflation rates and a robust economy. Despite challenges, the U.S. economy showed a robust 4.9% growth in Q3 2023, driven by consumer expenditure, while Eurozone markets mirrored the global downward trend.

In September 2023, the global financial landscape saw a significant retraction in global equities and government bonds, alongside nuanced dynamics in various economies. Despite mixed regional performances, the US showcased resilience, while Europe experienced subdued growth. China's economy improved, and Japan maintained a consistent policy stance. The intricate interplay of factors such as inflation, geopolitical tensions, and central bank strategies underscored a period of transitional vigor and volatility.

In August 2023, global equity markets experienced a setback after a strong previous month, primarily due to concerns about rising interest rates and thin trading volumes. Despite this, support levels remained resilient as investors sought opportunities amid market declines. US Treasury yields surged over the past six months due to increasing borrowing demands and downgrades of US government bonds. The global economy faced a slowdown, with manufacturing contraction and weak service sectors, leading to concerns about inflation and tight labor markets. Central banks maintained a hawkish stance, contributing to market volatility.

In July 2023, global stock markets saw a positive trend, with emerging markets leading the way. US equities progressed amid strong economic data and declining inflation rates, with the Federal Reserve implementing a quarter percentage point rate hike. Eurozone shares also grew, driven by decreasing inflation and positive economic data. The UK equity market experienced a positive trajectory, especially in domestically focused sectors. Emerging markets rallied, buoyed by supportive economic gestures from Chinese authorities and strong economic data.

Gains were primarily driven by developed markets like the US, while emerging market stocks underperformed. The technology sector experienced strong performance due to enthusiasm around Artificial Intelligence (AI). Several major central banks implemented interest rate hikes, and government bond yields increased, indicating a decline in bond prices. The US equities concluded the quarter positively, supported by easing inflationary pressures and resilient economic indicators. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates twice, and the eurozone experienced a mild recession. UK equities declined due to weaknesses in commodity prices and concerns over the Chinese economy. Japanese shares maintained strong momentum, and Chinese equities experienced a significant decline.

In May, political risks regarding the US debt ceiling overshadowed economic statistics. T-Bill and US Treasury bond rates initially reflected the risk of default but later declined as a political agreement was reached. Bond markets were negatively affected, with an average loss of nearly -2%, while equity markets showed mixed performance. The Nikkei increased by +7%, but the FTSE 100 declined by -5%, resulting in a -1% overall performance for the MSCI World index. International real estate securities experienced an average decline of -4.8%, with European listed real estate companies being hit harder at -7.8%. The S&P Commodities index declined by -6.1% due to concerns about the Chinese economic recovery. Despite these challenges, inflation, employment, and growth statistics did not significantly impact the ongoing stock market recovery.

This week we discuss the response of governments and central banks to the recent banking crisis, which has reassured investors and led to a return to calm in April. The tightening of credit access has had a restrictive impact, causing central banks to consider adjusting their monetary policies. It is believed that the cycle is nearing its end in the United States, paving the way for the stabilization of benchmark rates before a potential decline. Bond markets have remained stable, while equity markets are expected to be supported by a probable end to monetary tightening in the United States and a macroeconomic scenario oriented towards a moderate cyclical slowdown. The commodities segment in the index declines once again in April.

In March, financial markets faced heightened uncertainty, sparked by the bankruptcy of SVB and the sudden disappearance of Credit Suisse, leading to exceptional volatility and a flight to safer investments, causing a significant fall in bond yields. Central banks reassured markets with liquidity provision, stabilizing equities after initial declines. The banking crisis led to a reversal of forecasts on monetary policy, with expectations shifting towards easing. Equity markets initially suffered, particularly the banking sector, but recovered with the reassurance from central banks and an easing of systemic risks. Commodities continued their decline for the fifth consecutive month, exacerbated by banking disruptions and fears of recession, while precious metals rebounded towards historical highs.

In February 2023, global equities experienced a decline following a strong January, influenced by interest rate hikes by major central banks such as the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England. The US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation contributed to the drop in US equities, despite strong economic data, with concerns about potential further rate increases. Eurozone shares saw gains, particularly in communication services, financials, and industrials, but negative returns were observed in real estate, IT, and healthcare sectors. Japan's market saw a slight rise, while China's economic rebound gained momentum, boosting various sectors and commodity prices. Global government yields increased, affecting risk assets negatively, and investor speculation drove stock market rally amid warnings about economic fundamentals and liquidity concerns. Clairinvest Cosmopolitan recorded a 1.98% decline in February.